El verdadero ‘puente hacia el futuro’: desafíos y alternativas para la economía brasileña entre 2024 y 2026

Autores

  • Helder Lara Ferreira-Filho Universidade de Brasília 
  • Jefferson S. Fraga Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7203/IREP.6.1.29166

Resumo

Tras una breve contextualización de la economía brasileña durante las últimas dos décadas, este artículo subraya los problemas estructurales persistentes en la economía después de la crisis de 2014-2016. Sin embargo, la actual reducción de las restricciones de la balanza de pagos, atribuida en gran medida a los altos precios de las materias primas, en particular las exportaciones de petróleo, puede marcar una diferencia importante. Estas perspectivas favorables pueden permitir que el país experimente cambios estructurales sin comprometer su crecimiento. De cara a los desafíos de 2024 a 2026, o la construcción de un camino genuino hacia el "desarrollo sostenible", se vuelve imperativo aumentar la inversión pública en infraestructuras e innovación. Además, las mejoras en los niveles educativos son esenciales, ya que están vinculadas con el aumento de la productividad de la economía, junto con la búsqueda de un régimen fiscal equilibrado y sostenible.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografias Autor

Helder Lara Ferreira-Filho, Universidade de Brasília 

Ph.D. in Economics at University of Brasilia. Personal opinions only, not related to any other institution’s views

Jefferson S. Fraga, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)

Adjunct Professor at the Department of Economics of Federal University of Sergipe, Brazil. Ph.D. in Economics at Federal University of Minas Gerais

Referências

Arakelyan, M.; Gersl, A.; Schindler, M. Macroprudential Policies and Capital Controls Over Financial Cycles. IMF/WP 2023/171, International Monetary Fund, 2023.

Aschauer, D. A. Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, v.23, p.177-200, 1989a.

Aschauer, D. A. Public investment, and productivity growth. Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1989b. p.89-113.

Belloc, M.; Vertova, P. How does public investment affect economic growth in HIPC? An empirical assessment. Department of Economics, University of Siena, 416, 2004.

Blecker, R.; Setterfield, M. Heterodox macroeconomics: Models of demand, distribution, and growth. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019.

Borges, B. Impactos macroeconômicos estimados da proposta de reforma tributária consubstanciada na PEC 45/2019. Nota Técnica. Centro de Cidadania Fiscal., feb., 2020.

Bresser-Pereira, L. C.; Oreiro, J. L.; Marconi, N. A doença holandesa. In: Bresser-Pereira, L. C.; Oreiro, J. L.; Marconi, N. Macroeconomia desenvolvimentista: teoria e política econômica do novo desenvolvimentismo. Rio de Janeiro, RJ: Campus, 2016. p.67-90.

Calderón, C., Servén, L., 2014. The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution. Annals of Economics and Finance 15 (2), 521–534. Canning, D., 1998. A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950–95. The World Bank Economic Review 12, 529–547.

Calvo, G.; Izquierdo, A.; Mejia, L. On the empirics of sudden stops: the relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects. In: Proceedings, San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2014.

Deleidi, M.; Iafrate, F.; Levrero, E. Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 52, 2020.

Domingues, E.; Cardoso, D. Simulações dos impactos macroeconômicos, setoriais e distributivos da PEC 45/2019. Nota Técnica. Centro de Cidadania Fiscal – v.20, 2020.

Felipe, J.; Lanzafame, M.; Estrada, G. Is Indonesia’s growth rate balance-of-payments-constrained? A time-varying estimation approach. Review of Keynesian Economics, 7(4), 537–553, 2019.

Fisman, R; Golden, Miriam A. Corruption: What Everyone Needs to Know. NewYork: Oxford University Press, 2017.

Fraga, J. S.; Ferreira-Filho, H. L.. (2023). The effects of infrastructure and public investment on the elasticity of private investment: an empirical investigation for Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 43(1), 275–298.https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572023-3383.

Fraga, J. S.; Resende M. F. D. C. (2022). Infrastructure, conventions and private investment: An empirical investigation, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.03.006.

Glawe, L.; Wagner, H. China in the middle-income trap? China Economic Review, v.60, 2020.

Guzman, M.; Ocampo, J. A.; Stiglitz, J. E. Real exchange rate policies for economic development. World development, v.110, p.51-62, 2018.

Hidalgo, C.; Klinger, B.; Barabas, A. L.; Hausmann, R. The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations. Science, 317, 482-7, 2007.

Hidalgo, C.; Hausmann, R. The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106 (26), 10570-10575, 2009.

Hidalgo, C.; Hausmann, R. The Network Structure of Economic Output. Journal of Economic Growth, 16(4), 309-342, 2011.

Hlatshwayo, S.; Oeking, A.; Ghazanchyan, M.; Corvino, D.; Shukla, A.;Y Leigh, L. The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach. WP/18/195, 2018.

Izquierdo, A.; Lama, R.; Medina, J.; Puig, J.; Riera-Crichton, D.; Vegh, C.; Vuletin, G. Is the public investment multiplier higher in developing countries? An empirical exploration. IMF, WP/19/289, 2019.

Koo, R. The escape from balance sheet recession and the QE trap: A hazardous road for the world economy. John Wiley, Sons, 2014.

Levy-Yeyati, E.; Sturzenegger, F.; Gluzmann, P. Fear of appreciation. Journal of Development Economics, v.101, p.233-247, 2013.

Marquetti, A.; Fonseca, P. Do desenvolvimentismo à desindustrialização: Brasil, 1930-2022. Mimeo, 2024.

Mussolini, C.; Teles, V. K. Infraestrutura e produtividade no Brasil. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, v.30, n.4, p. 645-662, 2010.

Orair, R.; Siqueira, F. Investimento público no Brasil e suas relações com ciclo econômico e regime fiscal. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v.27, n.3, p.939-969, 2018.

Oreiro, J.; D’AgostinI, L. Terms of trade, real exchange rate over-valuation and deindustrialization: theory and empirical evidence on Brazilian Case (2003-2015). UFRJ, Texto para Discussão 24, 2016.

Oreiro, J. L.; Silva, K.;Davila, M. (2020), A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income trap. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, v.55, p.26-38.

Palma, G. Four sources of de-industrialization and a new concept of the Dutch disease. In: Ocampo, J. A. (Ed.). Beyond reforms, structural dynamics and macroeconomic vulnerability. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2005. p. 71-116.

Prebisch, R. The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. Nova Iorque: ECLA, UN Department of Economic Affairs, 1950.

Prebisch, R. Commercial policy in the underdeveloped countries. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Maio, 1959.

Souza, F. Por que a indústria parou?. In: Barbosa, N.; Marconi, N.; Pinheiro, M.; Carvalho, L. (Orgs.) Indústria e Desenvolvimento Produtivo no Brasil. São Paulo: Ed. Elsevier, 1ª Ed., 2015.

Thirlwall, A. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 128(1),45-53, 1979.

 

Downloads

Publicado

2024-07-10

Como Citar

Ferreira-Filho, H. L., & Fraga, J. S. (2024). El verdadero ‘puente hacia el futuro’: desafíos y alternativas para la economía brasileña entre 2024 y 2026. International Review of Economic Policy-Revista Internacional De Política Económica, 6(1), 16–34. https://doi.org/10.7203/IREP.6.1.29166
Metrics
Views/Downloads
  • Resumo
    104
  • PDF
    39

Edição

Secção

Artículos

Metrics