The theory that never died: How an eighteenth century mathematical idea transformed the twenty-first century

Authors

  • Sharon McGrayne

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7203/metode.0.3827

Keywords:

Bayes rule, Fisher, frequentists, Laplace

Abstract

Bayes’s rule, a simple eighteenth century theory about assessing knowledge, was controversial during most of the twentieth century but used secretly by Great Britain and the United States during World War II and the Cold War. Palomares and Valencia played important roles in its development in those dark days. The rule is widely used today in the computerized world and in many applications. For instance, Bayes has become political shorthand for something different: for data-based decision-making. The Bayesian Revolution turned out to be a modern paradigm shift for a very pragmatic age.

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Author Biography

Sharon McGrayne

Author of the book The Theory That Would Not Die . Seattle (USA).

References

Aldrich, J., 2004. «Harold Jeffreys and R. A. Fisher». ISBA Bulletin, 11: 7-9.

Aldrich, J., 2008. «R. A. Fisher on Bayes and Bayes’ Theorem». Bayesian Analysis, 3(1): 161-170. DOI: <10.1214/08-BA306>.

Bayes, T., 1763. «An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances». Philosophical Transactions, 53: 370-418. DOI: <10.1098/rstl.1763.0053>.

Fisher, R. A., 1925. Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Oliver and Boyd. Edinburgh.

Jeffreys, H., 1931. Scientific Inference. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.

Laplace, P., 1812. Théorie Analytique des Probabilités. Courcier. Paris.

McGrayne, S., 2013. La teoría que nunca murió. Critica. Barcelona.

Published

2015-04-16

How to Cite

McGrayne, S. (2015). The theory that never died: How an eighteenth century mathematical idea transformed the twenty-first century. Metode Science Studies Journal, (5), 159–165. https://doi.org/10.7203/metode.0.3827
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Section

The digits of science. Statistics as scientific tool

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